Ralph's College Football Poll 2009

This is a simple college football poll that uses transparent, consistent ranking methods.

Methods

Each team is assigned a score. Score is calculated as follows:

1/2 SOS Rank. _{[Source: Jeff Sagarin]}
1/8 Yards Rank. Raw number is calculated as (Yards For) / (Yards Against) _{[Source: BCSfootball.org]}
1/8 Points Rank. Raw number is calculated as (Points For) / (Points Against) _{[Source: BCSfootbal.org]}
1/8 Turnovers Rank. Raw number is calculated as (Turnovers For) / (Turnovers Against) _{[Source: NCAA]}
1/8 AP Poll Rank _{[Source: CBSsports.com]}

A team loses 20% of its Score for every loss. This is the LossF. The ultimate number that is used to rank teams, AdjScore, is simply (Score - Loss Factor).

Ralph's Poll November 29, 2009 (Week 13)

Team Rankings - November 29, 2009

Rank	LW	Team	W	L	Conf	SOS Rk	Yds Rk	Pts Rk	TO% Rk	AP Poll	Score	LossF	Adj Score
1	1	Alabama	12	0	SEC	27	3	3	4	2	.88	.00	.88
2	2	Florida	12	0	SEC	39	2	1	21	1	.82	.00	.82
3	3	Texas	12	0	Big12	49	4	4	16	3	.77	.00	.77
4	4	Cincinnati	11	0	BigEast	77	9	10	5	5	.65	.00	.65
5	6	TCU	12	0	MWC	84	1	2	42	4	.60	.00	.60
6	7	Boise St	12	0	WAC	91	7	7	2	6	.60	.00	.60
7	8	Oregon	9	2	Pac10	5	16	17	36	7	.90	.32	.57
8	5	Georgia Tech	10	2	ACC	17	23	29	34	12	.81	.29	.52
9	10	Ohio State	10	2	Big10	60	8	6	6	8	.71	.26	.46
10	11	Virginia Tech	9	3	ACC	11	15	11	17	11	.88	.43	.45
11	9	Pittsburgh	9	2	BigEast	52	22	14	11	14	.70	.25	.45
12	12	Iowa	10	2	Big10	47	35	24	53	9	.67	.24	.43
13	14	Oregon St	8	3	Pac10	28	26	26	23	13	.77	.38	.40
14	13	California	8	3	Pac10	19	48	37	13	19	.77	.37	.39
15	16	LSU	9	3	SEC	17	83	22	15	15	.77	.37	.39
16	17	Miami FL	9	3	ACC	15	17	32	74	17	.77	.37	.39
17	18	Southern Cal	8	3	Pac10	10	39	38	59	20	.76	.37	.39
18	19	Penn State	10	2	Big10	85	6	5	45	10	.57	.20	.36
19	22	Brigham Young	10	2	MWC	73	11	20	67	16	.55	.20	.35
20	24	West Virginia	8	3	BigEast	40	36	44	67	24	.61	.30	.31
21	20	Oklahoma St	9	3	Big12	48	40	34	55	22	.61	.30	.31
22	28	Houston	10	2	CUSA	103	12	21	9	18	.48	.17	.31
23	25	Arizona	7	4	Pac10	12	14	46	59	29	.74	.44	.30
24	29	Nebraska	9	3	Big12	62	37	8	42	21	.59	.29	.30
25	15	Clemson	8	4	ACC	29	29	18	31	25	.73	.43	.30
26	26	Stanford	8	4	Pac10	16	46	35	59	23	.72	.43	.30
27	23	Utah	9	3	MWC	70	25	25	47	26	.53	.26	.27
28	30	Wisconsin	8	3	Big10	67	21	42	49	27	.53	.26	.27
29	21	North Carolina	8	4	ACC	38	34	31	52	33	.62	.37	.26
30	27	Mississippi	8	4	SEC	41	19	19	108	29	.59	.35	.24
31	31	Arkansas	7	5	SEC	12	52	30	7	0	.74	.50	.24
32	38	Central Michigan	10	2	MAC	114	20	12	27	32	.37	.13	.24
33	34	Missouri	8	4	Big12	46	32	51	33	38	.58	.34	.24
34	36	Oklahoma	7	5	Big12	30	5	9	46	35	.71	.48	.23
35	35	Texas Tech	8	4	Big12	56	10	15	91	28	.57	.33	.23
36	44	Tennessee	7	5	SEC	25	18	27	41	34	.71	.48	.23
37	32	Auburn	7	5	SEC	14	27	52	59	0	.68	.46	.22
38	47	South Carolina	7	5	SEC	9	31	60	82	0	.67	.45	.22
39	39	Boston College	8	4	ACC	45	65	40	79	0	.51	.30	.21
40	50	Georgia	7	5	SEC	4	50	62	119	0	.63	.42	.21
41	45	Connecticut	6	5	BigEast	34	61	43	57	0	.58	.39	.19
42	51	Rutgers	8	3	BigEast	108	60	16	1	36	.36	.18	.19
43	48	East Carolina	8	4	CUSA	69	76	49	22	37	.45	.27	.18
44	33	Navy	8	4	Ind	78	66	41	8	0	.44	.26	.18
45	40	Kentucky	7	5	SEC	36	88	53	47	0	.54	.36	.18
46	37	UCLA	6	6	Pac10	7	69	68	40	0	.67	.50	.18
47	49	Nevada	8	4	WAC	82	13	23	74	0	.43	.25	.18
48	42	Notre Dame	6	6	Ind	24	41	55	28	0	.66	.48	.17
49	41	South Florida	7	4	BigEast	74	47	45	59	0	.42	.25	.17
50	43	Florida St	6	6	ACC	3	82	72	59	0	.65	.48	.17

Commentary - November 29, 2009

There are no 1-loss teams in college football. Obvious beneficiaries are Oregon, GATech, Ohio State, and VATech.
Penn State does not belong in a BCS Bowl
I'm not sure Cincy belongs in that #4 spot

Teams my poll seems to overrate: #8 GATech, #11 Pitt, #14 Cal, #21 OkSt

Ralph's Poll November 23, 2009 (Week 12)

Team Rankings - November 23, 2009

Rank	LW	Team	W	L	Conf	SOS Rk	Yds Rk	Pts Rk	TO Rk	AP Poll	Score	LossF	Adj Score
1	2	Alabama	11	0	SEC	41	3	2	5	2	.82	.00	.82
2	1	Florida	11	0	SEC	51	2	1	17	1	.78	.00	.78
3	4	Texas	11	0	Big12	56	4	3	7	3	.74	.00	.74
4	3	Cincinnati	10	0	BigEast	65	8	9	7	5	.70	.00	.70
5	7	Georgia Tech	10	1	ACC	12	16	27	28	7	.86	.17	.69
6	5	TCU	11	0	MWC	60	1	4	57	4	.68	.00	.68
7	6	Boise St	11	0	WAC	96	5	5	1	6	.58	.00	.58
8	8	Oregon	9	2	Pac10	3	17	19	31	10	.89	.32	.57
9	10	Pittsburgh	9	1	BigEast	58	15	12	11	8	.71	.14	.57
10	14	Ohio State	10	2	Big10	54	9	8	4	9	.73	.26	.47
11	12	Virginia Tech	8	3	ACC	5	20	13	24	14	.89	.43	.45
12	16	Iowa	10	2	Big10	40	38	30	43	13	.68	.24	.43
13	19	California	8	3	Pac10	14	51	38	17	21	.78	.38	.40
14	13	Oregon St	8	3	Pac10	24	27	32	37	16	.77	.38	.40
15	11	Clemson	8	3	ACC	33	24	16	17	15	.76	.37	.39
16	9	LSU	8	3	SEC	22	80	18	17	17	.75	.37	.39
17	21	Miami FL	8	3	ACC	11	21	39	82	19	.75	.36	.38
18	22	Southern Cal	7	3	Pac10	6	39	47	75	24	.73	.36	.38
19	28	Penn State	10	2	Big10	79	6	6	43	12	.58	.21	.37
20	18	Oklahoma St	9	2	Big12	67	31	25	51	11	.58	.21	.37
21	26	North Carolina	8	3	ACC	29	44	28	31	23	.70	.34	.36
22	24	Brigham Young	9	2	MWC	80	10	20	70	18	.51	.19	.33
23	23	Utah	9	2	MWC	82	23	24	37	22	.51	.18	.32
24	33	West Virginia	7	3	BigEast	36	41	43	75	32	.59	.29	.30
25	20	Arizona	6	4	Pac10	7	13	44	66	37	.73	.43	.30
26	15	Stanford	7	4	Pac10	13	50	35	60	26	.72	.43	.30
27	38	Mississippi	8	3	SEC	55	14	15	104	20	.58	.28	.30
28	34	Houston	9	2	CUSA	98	18	33	14	25	.45	.16	.29
29	32	Nebraska	8	3	Big12	66	29	7	51	27	.56	.27	.28
30	25	Wisconsin	8	3	Big10	62	19	41	43	28	.55	.27	.28
31	36	Arkansas	7	4	SEC	26	56	29	6	0	.68	.40	.28
32	37	Auburn	7	4	SEC	34	28	50	51	34	.63	.37	.26
33	35	Navy	8	3	Ind	72	60	37	24	30	.50	.24	.26
34	46	Missouri	7	4	Big12	46	32	49	43	0	.57	.33	.23
35	41	Texas Tech	7	4	Big12	53	11	17	97	31	.56	.33	.23
36	29	Oklahoma	6	5	Big12	31	7	10	37	0	.69	.47	.23
37	47	UCLA	6	5	Pac10	10	72	57	17	0	.68	.46	.22
38	30	Central Michigan	9	2	MAC	114	26	11	37	37	.35	.12	.22
39	31	Boston College	7	4	ACC	36	74	40	75	0	.54	.32	.22
40	43	Kentucky	7	4	SEC	45	78	52	43	34	.53	.31	.22
41	27	South Florida	7	3	BigEast	81	33	34	51	0	.42	.21	.22
42	39	Notre Dame	6	5	Ind	25	35	53	31	0	.66	.44	.22
43	45	Florida St	6	5	ACC	8	73	63	60	0	.65	.44	.21
44	44	Tennessee	6	5	SEC	35	25	31	37	0	.64	.43	.21
45	51	Connecticut	5	5	BigEast	21	57	51	60	0	.62	.42	.20
46	50	Temple	9	2	MAC	116	61	26	17	29	.32	.11	.20
47	48	South Carolina	6	5	SEC	15	36	69	82	0	.61	.41	.20
48	64	East Carolina	7	4	CUSA	61	77	48	11	0	.48	.28	.20
49	49	Nevada	8	3	WAC	99	12	22	70	34	.38	.18	.19
50	40	Georgia	6	5	SEC	17	54	65	119	0	.57	.38	.19
Rank	LW	Team	W	L	Conf	SOS Rk	Yds Rk	Pts Rk	TO Rk	AP Poll	Score	LossF	Adj Score

Conference Rankings - November 23, 2009

Conf	Avg	#Teams	AScoreSum
SEC	0.32	12	3.81
BigEast	0.30	8	2.37
Pac10	0.29	10	2.88
ACC	0.27	12	3.20
Big12	0.23	12	2.75
Big10	0.21	11	2.29
MWC	0.20	9	1.84
Ind	0.17	3	0.51
WAC	0.14	9	1.30
CUSA	0.11	12	1.28
MAC	0.08	13	1.04
SunBelt	0.06	9	0.54

Commentary - November 23, 2009

I screwed up an earlier iteration of this week's poll (and last week's poll) by forgetting to multiply 1/8 by the AP weight. Oops. Things got ugly real fast (#10 Cal, #21 Central Michigan, etc) and I decided that the SportsQuant SOS ratings were a bit unrealistic. As much as I love my Bears, Cal should not have a better SOS than USC. I parsed in Sagarin's SOS ranks, which I think are more fair. I did not use his ELO_CHESS BCS metric or any other of his stuff.
#5 Georgia Tech's superior SOS and one-loss season is enough to overcome TCU but not #4 Cincy. It has 3 wins over top-30 teams (#17 Miami, #15 Clemson, #21 NC). #6 TCU's SOS is surprisingly low considering the Horned Frogs have also beaten 3 top-30 teams (#15 Clemson, #23 Utah, #22 BYU). I would look into this but I've already spent too much time on football this week
If I were hand-ranking teams, I would put #14 Oregon St over #18 USC over #13 Cal, but alas.
From the department of unintentionally good scheduling comes #25 Arizona, which is hanging tough despite getting no respect from voters. Great job scheduling #12 Iowa and #38 Central Michigan! Sagarin even rates their Div I-AA cupcake Northern Arizona at #122, which beats a lot of shitty I-A teams like Florida ATlantic, UTEP, FIU, SJSU, Rice, etc..
Added more probable bowl teams to the forum output. As always, you can consult the Excel file for a full list of teams.
#16 LSU's tragic/hilarious last-minute loss to #27 Ole Miss was dropped them from the cusp of BCS-land into the teens. Ole Miss did well to jump from #38 into the land of national relevance.
#26 Stanford's last-minute loss to #13 California could have gone either way, but it was enough to drop it from a competitive Top 25 field. The Bears's strong SOS ranking inflates its position perhaps a little too highly--they're only ranked #21 AP and #26 USAToday/Coaches.
#19 Penn State finally found its way into my top 25, though my poll still thinks it's overrated thanks to its #79 ranked strength of schedule. The Nittany Lions' 20-17 turnover ratio is unimpressive as well. If there's going to be a second Big Ten team in a BCS bowl, it should be #12 Iowa.
#18 USC benefits quite a bit from the new SOS, rising from #22 despite not playing.
You can download the source file here in Excel .xlsx format.